CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-08T01:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-08T01:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33243/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered near N14W20 which deflects NW as it erupts based on SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The eruption begins around 2024-09-08T00:00Z. A faint EUV wave is visible traveling N/NE of the source location despite the filament material deflecting NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 304. Characterized by two consecutive enhancements in magnetic field components, the first at 2024-09-11T14:18Z and the second at 2024-09-11T15:40Z with Enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 343 km/s to approx. 390 km/s), temperature (approx. 26kK to approx. 70 kK), and density (approx. 4 p/cc to approx. 24 p/cc). These enhancements are possibly due to the arrival of CME: 2024-09-08T01:36Z, which arrived at STEREO A at 2024-09-10T21:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-11T14:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-10T23:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 670.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 409.410 Acceleration: 1.43299 Duration in seconds: 252551.81 Duration in days: 2.9230534 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.43 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 771.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 10/09/2024 Time: 23:45 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 54.87 hour(s)
Difference: 14.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-09-09T07:26Z
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